Clik here to view.
Update
Still a lot of uncertainty around convective evolution for this afternoon. The HRRR has been extremely consistent in blowing up storms over the warm sector and have dryline storms being pretty...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Last Couple Days
Thursday’s high risk ended up being a kick in the nuts for me. We knew leading into Thursday that convective evolution was the big question mark with the extent of the tornado threat and it ended up...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Extended Forecast
Welp, time to start looking ahead to our next chance for tornadoes. Still a long ways out and the GFS has been very inconsistent with the placement and extent of any severe weather/tornado threat for...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Extended Forecast
I’m going to keep this short tonight because I’m tired and I still think we are a day or two out from really getting into any detail. The NAM will pick up on Friday’s setup tomorrow morning, so I want...
View ArticleForecast Update
Long day again today so I am just now getting started looking at model data. Another busy day today. I didn’t get home from work until after 6pm, then I had to walk Duck, workout and clean my...
View ArticleUpdate
Sorry for no posts. I’ve took it easy and went out drinking yesterday and I am flying solo today so I haven’t had time to post on the road. I am sitting in Nowata, OK right now. That’s just east of...
View ArticleExtended Forecast
Looks like there is a few days with chase potential starting this Saturday, so time to dust off the blog again. I’m tired and I have to get up early to go to Ottawa, Kansas tomorrow, so I’m going to...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Forecast Update
Well it looks like there will be a solid tornado threat tomorrow over the southeast quadrant of Wyoming. I’ve been watching it for a couple days, but there is no way I can chase. I have a consultant...
View ArticleForecast Update
I’m still sulking a bit from not being able to chase Monday. Truth be told, I’m not 100% sure I would have gotten on the right storm. I was liking the Chugwater target and CAM guidance was consistent...
View ArticleIrma Update
I am pretty much finished packing my car for hurricane chasing, which is no small task. I got my car in the shop this morning getting some fuses replaced and my tires rotated. After that I just need to...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Update
Finally got my first tornado of the season. The tornado wasn’t all that impressive. The funnel lasted for quite a while, but the tornado was probably only down for a couple minutes. I did stream it...
View ArticleForecast Update
I wouldn’t even be making a post right now if I did say I was going to last night because I don’t know what to tell you lol. God damn models. Usually I’m a pretty big fan of the NAM and despite getting...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Forecast Update
Just a quick map I threw together at work this morning. Since I am working, I literally only glanced at the NAM so don’t put much stock in this. that’s especially the case because this goes against the...
View ArticleClik here to view.
May 18th and 19th Tornado Forecast
Good news and bad news with the 00Z NAM. Bad news is that tomorrow still does not look good for tornadoes. Good news is Saturday looks a whole lot better for tornadoes. I’m dragging ass and need to...
View ArticleUpdate
Just glanced at data and no changes to the going forecast (see previous post and map). I think the NAM had a good handle on moisture with last night’s run and we are staring down the barrel of upper 50...
View ArticleUpdate
Sorry I didn’t get a post up after I hit the road yesterday. I was flying solo and I never had much time or much to say while I was driving out to western Kansas and getting into position. I thought...
View ArticleToday
We are going with the OFB target today. I am trying to get out the door so not much time now, but I think the overnight convection disrupted low level winds more than the NAM is showing. 850’s really...
View ArticleUpdate
Well the outlook isn’t good my friends. I tell you it’s not good at all lol. Seriously though it does look like shit, but you can’t really trust the GFS that far out. I’ll get into that here in a...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Today
Heading out chasing right now. Almost to Pratt as I type this. Heading for the area south of Greensberg right now. There is an area of convergence down there that keeps putting off towers. Sooner or...
View ArticleTornado Chances for Friday
Really don’t know why I’m making a post right now because I have been unable to do any real forecasting since the models updated. COD has been slow the last few days and tonight it is literally...
View Article
